Asian economies in general are in an incredibly fragile state with South Korean exports contracting, export-dependent emerging markets clinging on to idle speed manufacturing PMI readings, and Chinese debt service payments coming due after being augmented by consecutive rounds of grandesque fiscal stimulus.
The Departure from Sound Money: Current Generation Spends More on Needs, Less on Wants Than Prior Generation (Chart) – You Bet This Will Shape Future Politics and Markets
You invest in the markets of the future not the markets of the past. It is time to start expecting a more inflationary future led by both left and right populist political leaders.
Why Equity Market Gains Fueled in Part by a Weak Currency Just Aren’t the Same: Here is the S&P500 in Euro Terms
If foreign investors don’t expect the dollar pendulum to swing back anytime soon, they will demand much higher interest rates to compensate for the currency and inflation risk. Additional UST damage won’t do risk assets any favors and neither will trillion+ dollar deficits as far as the eye can see. Watch long end bonds.
An influx of new fixed income supply over the coming four plus years is going to have a difficult time finding enough increased marginal demand to fill the void left by central banks gradually winding down their balance sheets.