Information = Edge
JGB’s Join the Higher Bond Yield March with a Bout of Bear Steepening Concentrated at the Long End The risk/reward prospects of owning longer-dated government bonds from current historically suppressed levels are as attractive as a bucket of dry sand after a sweaty jog. As Bloomberg notes, Japan’s bond market is enduring pressure due to recent BOJ policy adjustments. Japan […]
On May 8th, Assist FX expressed caution in prematurely poking the seafloor for a bottom in the paper gold market: “Gold is not yet a clear buy as one might suspect with higher inflation. This is due to the risk of sharply higher interest rates still on the table. Higher real interest rates are an enemy to gold. We see […]
Our thesis was driven by fiscal math gravity facing government budgets and game theory analysis for how central planners would react to it.
The current fiat-based monetary system is becoming insolvent from a dead-end Keynesian “debt and inflate” feedback loop paired with a lack of needed structural reforms, and it can only be kept intact going forward with capital controls and financial repression–which is what will eventually kill the current trickle-down system of centralized government fiat and precisely what spawned cryptos in the first place.
We view the incoming coalition as openly hostile to the New Zealand dollar, all else equal, though Labour’s coalition lead is a moderating force compared with what would be the case if NZ First party leader Peters were fully in charge. This means risks increase notably for the kiwi dollar but not in an extreme fashion overnight.
ECB dovishness only reinforces the notion of a central bank behind the curve with yield suppression reversal pressure mounting until the data begin to reinforce the jawboning.
Venezuela: a tragic reminder of the follies of political corruption, unjustified increases in money supply, and heavy handed actions by central planners to cheat basic economics.
Dominant Currencies Through History: Why USD is at Risk as a Reserve Currency and What Would Replace It
The types of existential threats which hampered the euro currency during the European debt crisis have largely receded for the time being.
China credit impulse with a 9 month lead is taking a dive.
The nuanced hawkish rhetoric shift by other advanced economy central banks recently, particularly from the RBA’s key commodity producer counterpart in the west, the Bank of Canada, was not imitated by RBA Governor Lowe.
What has been overlooked by most are the strong back-to-back personal income figures of 0.4% m/m in May and 0.3% m/m (revised from 0.4%) in April. While April was revised a tick lower, May’s rebound capped off an impressive two month gain of 0.7% in personal incomes.
Retail Industry Credit Risks Are in Dangerous Territory As “Taper 2.0” Approaches
Emerging markets are experiencing steady capital inflows and currency appreciation on a broad basis, with a few exceptions.
Inadequate Historical Valuation Measures and What Comes Next in This Monetary Bubble Investing Frontier
USD Soft Patch to Set the Stage for Another Grind Higher in Asset Prices and Interest Rates
