SP500 1Q2019 Operating Earnings Flirting With Negative Territory
Margin contraction fears are creeping into Pro-forma Income Statements after hovering comfortably deep into double-digit territory as recently as 3Q2018.
Japan’s Government Bond Yields Pressured Higher as BOJ Quietly Trims Purchases of Longer-Term Maturities
JGB’s Join the Higher Bond Yield March with a Bout of Bear Steepening Concentrated at the Long End The risk/reward prospects of owning longer-dated government bonds from current historically suppressed levels are as attractive as a bucket of dry sand after a sweaty jog. As Bloomberg notes, Japan’s bond market is enduring pressure due to recent BOJ policy adjustments. Japan […]
Factors Weighing Down Gold Are Finally Beginning to Shift
On May 8th, Assist FX expressed caution in prematurely poking the seafloor for a bottom in the paper gold market: “Gold is not yet a clear buy as one might suspect with higher inflation. This is due to the risk of sharply higher interest rates still on the table. Higher real interest rates are an enemy to gold. We see […]
US Nominal GDP Is Burning Rubber at a 7.4% Annual Clip: The Public Will Get the Inflation It Thinks It Wants
Our thesis was driven by fiscal math gravity facing government budgets and game theory analysis for how central planners would react to it.
Why It Is Encouraging the Old Guard Still Doesn’t Understand Crypto Adoption
The current fiat-based monetary system is becoming insolvent from a dead-end Keynesian “debt and inflate” feedback loop paired with a lack of needed structural reforms, and it can only be kept intact going forward with capital controls and financial repression–which is what will eventually kill the current trickle-down system of centralized government fiat and precisely what spawned cryptos in the first place.
New Zealand Takes Step in Direction of Economic Nationalism and Less Central Bank Independence: How This Impacts Our Long Standing Bullish Stance on Kiwi
We view the incoming coalition as openly hostile to the New Zealand dollar, all else equal, though Labour’s coalition lead is a moderating force compared with what would be the case if NZ First party leader Peters were fully in charge. This means risks increase notably for the kiwi dollar but not in an extreme fashion overnight.
Leveraged Funds Are More Long EUR/USD Than They Have Been in Nearly 5 Years
ECB dovishness only reinforces the notion of a central bank behind the curve with yield suppression reversal pressure mounting until the data begin to reinforce the jawboning.
Stores in Venezuela Resort to Weighing Stacks of Bolivares on Scale Rather than Counting It
Venezuela: a tragic reminder of the follies of political corruption, unjustified increases in money supply, and heavy handed actions by central planners to cheat basic economics.
Dominant Currencies Through History: Why USD is at Risk as a Reserve Currency and What Would Replace It
Dominant Currencies Through History: Why USD is at Risk as a Reserve Currency and What Would Replace It
French Support of Eurozone Reaches Multi-Year Highs: Euro Currency Demand to Remain Firm
The types of existential threats which hampered the euro currency during the European debt crisis have largely receded for the time being.
Caution on China Exposure As Credit Is Starting to Dry Up
China credit impulse with a 9 month lead is taking a dive.
Soft RBA Tone and Quiet China Liquidity Drain to Constrain AUD
The nuanced hawkish rhetoric shift by other advanced economy central banks recently, particularly from the RBA’s key commodity producer counterpart in the west, the Bank of Canada, was not imitated by RBA Governor Lowe.
What the Market Overlooked in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Report
What has been overlooked by most are the strong back-to-back personal income figures of 0.4% m/m in May and 0.3% m/m (revised from 0.4%) in April. While April was revised a tick lower, May’s rebound capped off an impressive two month gain of 0.7% in personal incomes.
Retail Industry Credit Risks Are in Dangerous Territory As “Taper 2.0” Approaches
Retail Industry Credit Risks Are in Dangerous Territory As “Taper 2.0” Approaches
EM Currency Stability Set to Continue Near Term
Emerging markets are experiencing steady capital inflows and currency appreciation on a broad basis, with a few exceptions.
Inadequate Historical Valuation Measures and What Comes Next in This Monetary Bubble Investing Frontier
Inadequate Historical Valuation Measures and What Comes Next in This Monetary Bubble Investing Frontier
