Cryptocurrencies are not going to eliminate old, inefficient middlemen and change the world for the better by requiring new centralized middlemen in order to facilitate their existence.
We like to build a foundation of top-down macro themes over longer time frames and then optimize specific risk management strategies to fit the nature of the themes more actively.
The current fiat-based monetary system is becoming insolvent from a dead-end Keynesian “debt and inflate” feedback loop paired with a lack of needed structural reforms, and it can only be kept intact going forward with capital controls and financial repression–which is what will eventually kill the current trickle-down system of centralized government fiat and precisely what spawned cryptos in the first place.
The Privatization and Decentralization of Money: One of the Greatest Financial Stories in Your Lifetime Is Unfolding Right Before Your Eyes
One thing is nearly certain from our perspective: governments will try to blame private cryptocurrencies for the failures of a poorly devised trickle-down inflationary monetary system which spawned their demand.
Global Macro Backdrop: Absolutely remarkable and historically unprecedented Developed market equity indexes are scorching higher across the board. New all-time highs or multi-decade highs are being reached nearly every day in the US, Japan, Germany, and elsewhere. Bond yields are constrained across the duration and risk spectrum near multi-decade lows. European sovereign 2-year notes in periphery nations such as Italy, Portugal, and Spain are negative and continuing to hit new lows. Bond spreads between Germany and the periphery are generally narrowing to new lows, pricing in similar levels of risk between EU nation states. European high yield bonds are trading below 2%. Equity, bond, and currency market volatility are all at or near historic lows. This is the least volatile […]
“Revenge of the Savers:” The Real Reason Behind Demand for Bitcoin and Other Decentralized Digital Currencies
The main driver of cryptocurrency demand, which we describe as “revenge of the savers,” is what concerns central banks, governments, and too-big-to-fail banking behemoths such as JP Morgan Chase.