bonds

Everything Rally Stages Tremendous Surge in 1H 2019 on Deteriorating Fundamentals as Markets Merge with Central Bank Liquidity as Key Driver

As long as Core PCE remains at or below 2%, Fed doves have all the ammunition they need to bolster dovish policy expectations and keep the everything rally steam engine chugging on greased rails.

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emerging markets

China Maintains Record Financial Leverage, In Dire Need of Trade Deal

Asian economies in general are in an incredibly fragile state with South Korean exports contracting, export-dependent emerging markets clinging on to idle speed manufacturing PMI readings, and Chinese debt service payments coming due after being augmented by consecutive rounds of grandesque fiscal stimulus. 

currencies

USD Repatriation Surge Has Ended

The immediate term tailwind for USD following passage of the 2017 Tax Reform and Jobs Act is transitioning to a more neutral impact, while simultaneously, longer-term structural debt problems will gradually (and then suddenly) enter the spotlight negatively for USD over the coming 3-5 years.

bonds

Profit Warnings and Treasury Market Selloff to Plague US Equities in the Near Term

We are looking at a confluence of negative catalysts for global equities in the near term. This time around it does not exclude US equities. As I have covered for an extended period, we eventually anticipate an inflationary public policy response earlier and more aggressively than would have occurred in prior times to any material economic contractions. This is due […]

bonds

Japan’s Government Bond Yields Pressured Higher as BOJ Quietly Trims Purchases of Longer-Term Maturities

JGB’s Join the Higher Bond Yield March with a Bout of Bear Steepening Concentrated at the Long End The risk/reward prospects of owning longer-dated government bonds from current historically suppressed levels are as attractive as a bucket of dry sand after a sweaty jog. As Bloomberg notes, Japan’s bond market is enduring pressure due to recent BOJ policy adjustments. Japan […]