What the ECB Should Have Done Today
Economist Daniel LaCalle outlines in specific detail a far better policy prescription than that offered by the ECB today
Everything Rally Stages Tremendous Surge in 1H 2019 on Deteriorating Fundamentals as Markets Merge with Central Bank Liquidity as Key Driver
As long as Core PCE remains at or below 2%, Fed doves have all the ammunition they need to bolster dovish policy expectations and keep the everything rally steam engine chugging on greased rails.
China Maintains Record Financial Leverage, In Dire Need of Trade Deal
Asian economies in general are in an incredibly fragile state with South Korean exports contracting, export-dependent emerging markets clinging on to idle speed manufacturing PMI readings, and Chinese debt service payments coming due after being augmented by consecutive rounds of grandesque fiscal stimulus.
USD Repatriation Surge Has Ended
The immediate term tailwind for USD following passage of the 2017 Tax Reform and Jobs Act is transitioning to a more neutral impact, while simultaneously, longer-term structural debt problems will gradually (and then suddenly) enter the spotlight negatively for USD over the coming 3-5 years.
FX Volatility Near Post-Bretton Woods Historic Lows: Calm Before the Storm or Another Asset Class Swallowed by Central Banks?
Risk appetite levels are trapped between slowing global growth and monetary policy countercyclical measures, also known as the “Fed Put” or “Central Bank Put.”
SP500 1Q2019 Operating Earnings Flirting With Negative Territory
Margin contraction fears are creeping into Pro-forma Income Statements after hovering comfortably deep into double-digit territory as recently as 3Q2018.
Rosenberg: “It will be G4 central banks getting together with G4 financial authorities to embark on what will be called the debt jubilee.”
“Before 2008 nobody knew what quantitative easing was. Now it is in the common vernacular. High school students know what QE is. People will come to grips with what is called debt monetization. And that’s different from QE. “
OPEC+ Deal Takeaways After My Week in Vienna
The final OPEC+ cut deal of 1.2M bpd from an October baseline was applauded as a “larger than consensus” cut. It was only larger than the lowered estimate provided the day before by al-Falih.
Foreign Ownership of US Treasuries Is Starting to Rollover
While foreign central banks and investors have held steady their nominal ownership of UST’s, they are not keeping pace with the increasing stock on a percentage basis.
China Trade Data Suggests Front Running of Chinese Goods Before Higher Tariffs
September trade data out of China might indicate a surge of temporary goods purchases in anticipation of another bump up in tariff rates. If so, this will feed into an abnormally high inventory buildup in the United States during the autumn period that will fall off a cliff early next year whether there are higher tariffs or not.
Profit Warnings and Treasury Market Selloff to Plague US Equities in the Near Term
We are looking at a confluence of negative catalysts for global equities in the near term. This time around it does not exclude US equities. As I have covered for an extended period, we eventually anticipate an inflationary public policy response earlier and more aggressively than would have occurred in prior times to any material economic contractions. This is due […]
Draghi’s Firm Language: “Relatively Vigorous” Rise in Underlying Eurozone Inflation
It indicates that, if anything, the risk to changes in current market expectations is to the upside in terms of a potential rate hike by early summer 2019 rather than after the summer.
Japan’s Government Bond Yields Pressured Higher as BOJ Quietly Trims Purchases of Longer-Term Maturities
JGB’s Join the Higher Bond Yield March with a Bout of Bear Steepening Concentrated at the Long End The risk/reward prospects of owning longer-dated government bonds from current historically suppressed levels are as attractive as a bucket of dry sand after a sweaty jog. As Bloomberg notes, Japan’s bond market is enduring pressure due to recent BOJ policy adjustments. Japan […]
Key Drivers Underpinning Populism to Persist: A Populist Policy Response Is An Inflationary One
Public official intentions on both the left and the right suggest the conditions underpinning populist political forces will continue.
The Departure from Sound Money: Current Generation Spends More on Needs, Less on Wants Than Prior Generation (Chart) – You Bet This Will Shape Future Politics and Markets
You invest in the markets of the future not the markets of the past. It is time to start expecting a more inflationary future led by both left and right populist political leaders.
Factors Weighing Down Gold Are Finally Beginning to Shift
On May 8th, Assist FX expressed caution in prematurely poking the seafloor for a bottom in the paper gold market: “Gold is not yet a clear buy as one might suspect with higher inflation. This is due to the risk of sharply higher interest rates still on the table. Higher real interest rates are an enemy to gold. We see […]
